Security in Iraq: a framework for analyzing emerging threats as U.S. forces leave

Introduction -- Political and security conditions of U.S. withdrawal -- Future U.S. security responsibilities in Iraq

A critical question surrounding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq is Iraq's internal security and stability. Although the U.S. withdrawal plan is designed with care to avoid weakening Iraq's security, the end of U.S. occupation may alter the strategies of the main Iraqi political actors, each of which has enough armed power to be able to shatter Iraq's domestic peace. In view of the potential for insecurity in Iraq, the United States cannot afford to take a passive or reactive stance. To anticipate dangers and act purposefully, U.S. policy-makers need a dynamic analytic framework with which to examine the shifting motivations and capabilities of the actors that affect Iraq's security. This monograph offers such a framework