Portfolio-analysis methods for assessing capability options

Introduction -- Background: The Capabilities-Development Process -- A Framework and a Generic Terms of Reference -- Tools to Enable the Framework -- A Notional Example: Global Strike -- A Second Example: Ballistic Missile Defense -- Conclusions and Next Steps -- Appendix A: Joint Capability Areas -- Appendix B: Implications for Systems Engineering and Modeling and Simulation -- Appendix C: RAND's Portfolio-Analysis Tools

An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research